Posted: 11:39 am Tuesday, February 4th, 2014

Tech’s two-stars better than four-stars? 

By Ken Sugiura

For those hyperventilating on recruiting rankings in advance of signing day tomorrow, consider this. During coach Paul Johnson’s tenure, for better or worse, you could make the case that Tech’s two stars have outperformed its four stars.

By Rivals’ definition, five-star players are projected to be All-Americans and first-round NFL picks. Four-star prospects are high-impact players and all-conference picks. Three-stars are projected to start for one or two years. Two-stars are future scout teamers and depth-chart fillers. A look at Tech’s two-stars and four-stars (By Rivals’ records, which go back to 2002, Tech has not signed a five-star prospect. Calvin Johnson was a four-star) who have completed their careers offers further evidence that rankings require a sizable grain of salt.

2008

2 stars

Daniel McKayhan

Rashaad Reid

Kamaron Riley

Quentin Sims

Phil Smith

Cooper Taylor

Tevin Washington

Antonio Wilson

4 stars

Omoregie Uzzi

Evaluation – Uzzi proved worthy of his evaluation, starting three seasons and earning first-team All-ACC twice. Four of the eight two stars outperformed – Reid, Smith, Taylor and Washington. While he transferred to Richmond, Taylor was a fifth-round pick of the New York Giants this past year.

2009

2 stars

Julian Burnett

Carl Miles

Lance Richardson

4 stars

J.C. Lanier

Evaluation – Burnett turned out to be one of Tech’s best players in Johnson’s tenure before his career was cut short by a neck injury. Lanier fought injuries, and his career never took off. He switched from defensive line to offensive line, played minimally, and then was placed on medical scholarship.

2010

2 stars

Justin Moore

4 stars

Ryan Ayers

Denzel McCoy

Anthony Williams

Louis Young

Evaluation – Moore was a two-year starter at kicker, though he had his share of struggles. Of the four four-stars, only Young saw consistent playing time. Ayers redshirted and then transferred, McCoy never played due to a heart condition and Williams was a backup for three seasons who will not return for his senior season.

My incisive summary

Out of 12 two-star prospects, six were starters for varying lengths and two of them were team captains (Burnett and Washington) and one (Burnett) was named All-ACC. Of the six four-star recruits, four never started a game, one was a decent three-year starter (Young) and one lived up to billing (Uzzi). This list doesn’t include Robert Godhigh, a no-star prospect who walked on and was the Yellow Jackets’ best offensive player in 2013.

You can conclude what you want – Tech is deft at bargain hunting, so to speak, or isn’t so adept at picking out the high-priced merchandise. I’d quibble with that conclusion, as players aren’t recruited based on how many stars they’re receiving. That is to say, coaches don’t have a shopping list that says “2 four-stars, 15 three-stars, 2 two-stars, 1 stick of butter.”

My takeaway, beyond the fact that we’re not dealing with a very big sample size, is that rankings aren’t terribly reliable. I would surmise that five stars are easier to pick out, but that everything is fairly gray after that.

I fall back on what is true in recruiting and, more broadly, in life (Cue the music): So much of what a player becomes is dependent on his determination to maximize his ability and, to a lesser extent, factors like injuries and how the depth chart plays out. I think Washington is a pretty good example. Washington worked as hard as anyone during his career and got the break of having other quarterbacks transfer or switch positions. Given the opportunity to start, he took it and didn’t let go for 2 ½ years.

Tech’s class has one four-star – cornerback Step Durham, who enrolled early – and just one two-star, offensive lineman Jake Whitley. Time will tell on both.

163 comments
Yellerbug
Yellerbug

It would not be difficult to rank the players at the end of their college career---Consensus All American 5 *, All Conference 4*, etc and then calculate the variance or standard deviation from their initial ranking.  Then one could tell how accurate the ratings are.  Another benefit is that these before and after scores could be used to evaluate position coaches to show if players playing above their rating, at their rating or below their rating.

IhateCPJ
IhateCPJ

The recruiting rankings are a direct result of the teams Wins and Loses the past 4 years. Look at what the 2007 class produced.

juvenal
juvenal

every year Athlon has an article on what happened to the top 50 from 5 years ago......

charlestonian77
charlestonian77

we just pulled a uga in the hopes it helps with one of our targets. 

clinton lynch a teammate of myles autry has committed to the jackets. hmmmmm.

BigCrimson75
BigCrimson75

"Who said that"

"No body would ever say/do that"

----

Last week when the ajc published the graduates from both GT & UGA.....Bob & Johnny amongst other Tech supporters couldn't help themselves by going on Chip's blog berating & ridiculing the UGA grads.

Look it up yourselves.

I'm not y'all's f-ing errand boy.

charlestonian77
charlestonian77

on sec - ond thought i take back every bad thing i ever said about bama. EVER!

if you pi$$ off a bama fan

1,) they either kill you or
2.) they wait until your sleeping to rub their junk in your face or
3.) they destroy your landscaping with herbicide in the dark of night,

sorry crimson. my bad. please forgive me.

ElemennoP
ElemennoP

Toss up question:


If "stars" mean nothing then why are some of you so angry that someone who was rated a 2-star supposedly was elevated to 3-star simply by signing with UGA?

charlestonian77
charlestonian77

funny how that works.

saban coaches in the nfl and is so bad he "STINKS" up the joint. he "QUITS" the nfl cause he cant  'hang'  and scurries back to the college ranks where he immediately starts manipulating the rule book just like the bear did. EXACTLY LIKE THE BEAR DID. 

all of a sudden a bama team that was relegated to a has-been becomes sucessfull. so sucessfull it starts dominating  the polls.

question for you big crimson with your chests all puffed out.... how does a mediocre nfl coach become a genius in a bigger pond? 

HE BREAKS DA RULES BOSS. HE BREAKS DA RULES.

GTBob
GTBob

@BigCrimson75  I poke fun at UGA fans all the time for their Housing, Magazines, and Leisure Studies majors. Ive never said that GT's players are all engineers though. I am well aware that most of them are majoring in the highly ranked Business Administration major.

AugustaJacket
AugustaJacket

@BigCrimson75  Look it up yourselves.

I'm not y'all's f-ing errand boy.

____________________________________________________________________


Translation:  I made crap up and now I'm stuck trying to defend it....

SupersizeThatOrder-mutt
SupersizeThatOrder-mutt

@BigCrimson75  

That's certainly not the same as claiming that all Tech football players major in engineering.  Show us where somebody made that claim

BigCrimson75
BigCrimson75

Forgive? For what?

Who's mad?

By the look of things, I'd be worried about George.

He seems to know whatever you're referencing.

Honestly, I don't pay much attention to the "Fringe".

charlestonian77
charlestonian77

@ElemennoP   that is why he was a abject failure in the nfl.   they dont stand for that stuff unlike the ncaa/espn. 

SupersizeThatOrder-mutt
SupersizeThatOrder-mutt

@ElemennoP  

Nobody is angry.  We just want to know why the "system" works like that.  It would seem to verify that the whole "system" is a sham

AugustaJacket
AugustaJacket

@ElemennoP  Most of us aren't upset, we simply find the dichotomy in the rankings amusing.  Surely you can agree that adding a star on the basis a recruit flips from one school to another is silly.

GTBob
GTBob

@ElemennoP  Not a single person has said that stars mean nothing. Most just think the star system is flawed.

BigCrimson75
BigCrimson75

Sounds a lot like Pete Carroll.............minus the part about running back to the nfl after he sunk the Trojans, oh & to my knowledge the Fins locker room wasn't a big PED Party like Seattle's.

charlestonian77
charlestonian77

@GTBob @charlestonian77while that may be true. it certainly doesnt  hurt.

if gt had two players of equal ability on the board and had to chose one... common sense tells me they chose autry's team mate for that reason.... just not the sole reason.

BigCrimson75
BigCrimson75

Of course not.

That's beneath PJ is it not?

ElemennoP
ElemennoP

@GTBob @BigCrimson75


Do you also poke fun at the following GT majors?



The School of History, Technology, and Society


The School of Literature, Communication, and Culture


The School of Modern Languages


The School of Public Policy



:

BigCrimson75
BigCrimson75

AJ .....What have I made up?

You zealots are running over each other asking me to defend a comment that I didn't even say!!

DON1938
DON1938

@SupersizeThatOrder-mutt @ElemennoP It would be in Tech's best interest to recruit better using the current system regardless if the "system is a sham" than trying to continue recruiting so much "under the radar."  In the long run, it would be beneficial to add more stars in our commitments.

ElemennoP
ElemennoP

@AugustaJacket @ElemennoP


If I knew that to be the case than I'd agree with you.  I guess I don't follow it closely enough to see where a player gains stars by committing to a particular college.

ElemennoP
ElemennoP

@BigCrimson75


Perhaps it's because the Dolphins had nothing to celebrate with Saban at the helm

GTBob
GTBob

@BigCrimson75  I don't think its beneath CPJ. I don't even think it is a bad practice, but it's not what happened in this case. We aren't nearly high enough on Autry to offer package deals to help out his buddies. If Kinlaw hadn't decommitted from Tech then Autry probably wouldn't even have an offer from us anymore.

GTBob
GTBob

@ElemennoP Would you really like to compare the curriculum of those programs to the curriculum of the joke majors at UGA?

GTBob
GTBob

@BigCrimson75  There is no degree in Modern Languages. There are two combined degrees though:

International Affairs and Modern Languages

Global Economics and Modern Languages

There are roughly zero athletes taking these majors. Ill let you guys try to figure out why.

BigCrimson75
BigCrimson75

The School of Modern Languages!!?

I certainly hope that's not Ebonics, although it would explain alot!

GeorgeStein
GeorgeStein

@ElemennoP Have you ever been to the Georgia Institute of Technology?  Of course we do.

AugustaJacket
AugustaJacket

@BigCrimson75 Your intimation is that it is quite frequent for GT fans to claim that our team is full of engineering majors.  We are asking you to prove it, since you say you see it frequently.  

ElemennoP
ElemennoP

@AugustaJacket @ElemennoP


I'm not trashing him but the grapevine said he didn't have the grades and didn't want to go prep school or JUCO.


I wish him well.

AugustaJacket
AugustaJacket

@ElemennoP @AugustaJacket  Did you see where Gant just flipped to Marshall?  He desperately wanted to be a dawg, but it just didn't work out for him.  Hope he finds success at Marshall.

ElemennoP
ElemennoP

@AugustaJacket @ElemennoP


Meh, I guess it's like the Senior "Superlatives" in a high school yearbook.  No rhyme or reason for some of them.


I'm one who wants players who truly want to be a Bulldog on my team.  They will do whatever's necessary to stay out of trouble and stay academically eligible.


If someone doesn't want to come to UGA then I don't want them. Nothing spiteful, just wanting someone who is truly committed.

AugustaJacket
AugustaJacket

@ElemennoP @AugustaJacket  It happened with Brendan Douglas last year.  uga fans were deriding GT for taking a 2* RB up until he flipped to uga.  Then, magically, he was upgraded to a 3* RB and uga fans were talking about how great he was.  It's just plain silly.


There was also the case of the 4* DB who decommitted from Vandy and went to 3* the next day.  This happens a lot.

GeorgeStein
GeorgeStein

@BigCrimson75  Saban has the same number of playoff berths as a HC in the NFL as I do.

BigCrimson75
BigCrimson75

Jason Taylor won Defensive POY in Saban's 1st year.

That's something worth celebrating.

BigCrimson75
BigCrimson75

Who's to say?

Fact is until after Spring Ball no one at any college know exactly what numbers their dealing with.